Effect of climate variables on dengue incidence in a tropical Caribbean municipality of Colombia, Cerete, 2003-2008.

Climate change and climate variability is increasingly recognized as one of the factors influencing multiple infectious diseases worldwide. During the last decade much evidence has been reported on the relationships between different environmental variables and vector-borne diseases, such as dengue. However, particularly in the Americas, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding the specific relationships between climate variables and the epidemiology of dengue, especially in areas of low endemicity. This is the case in Colombia, where only two previous studies have been reported. For these reasons more studies describing the magnitude of such influences are needed and should be reported. This study describes the relationships between weekly climate variables and the weekly morbidity due to dengue in Cerete (Figure 1), a tropical Caribbean municipality located on the northwestern coast of Colombia This study was carried out during 2003– 2008 in order to establish the significance of the influences of climate on the disease epidemiology. The population of Cerete for the year 2008 was 86 133 inhabitants. Meteorological data (precipitation, relative humidity, and mean temperature) were obtained from the National Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM), and the epidemiological data from the Local Secretary of Health. Climate periods were classified according to the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) with regard to